Ibid. While Heuer’s observations may be true in theory, the medical profession is
currently experiencing a debate over the possible over-collection of data that does
not conform to medical diagnostic theory. This problem with over-collection has
its parallels in the intelligence world as well. As a result, both fields struggle with
allocation and utilization of scarce resources.
Ibid., pp. 45, 101–102.
Ibid., p. 26. In this section Heuer cites Arthur S. Elstein, Lee S. Shulman, and
Sarah A. Sprafka, Medical Problem Solving: An Analysis of Clinical Reasoning
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1978), p. 276.
For a list of analytic errors that apply to both intelligence analysis and medicine,
see: Walter Laqueur, ‘‘The Question of Judgment,’’ p. 541.
Stephen Marrin, ‘‘Improving CIA Analysis by Overcoming Institutional
Obstacles,’’ pp. 40–59.
Ronald D. Garst and Max L. Gross, ‘‘On Becoming an Intelligence Analyst,’’
Defense Intelligence Journal, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1997, p. 48.
For more on the causes of analytic failure, see Richards Heuer, ‘‘Improving
Intelligence Analysis: Some Insights on Data, Concepts, and Management in
the Intelligence Community,’’ The Bureaucrat,Vol.8,No.1,Winter1979=80,
pp. 2–11. See also, Richard Betts, ‘‘Analysis, War and Decision: Why
Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable,’’ World Politics,Vol.31,No.1,October
Walter Laqueur, ‘‘The Question of Judgment,’’ p. 544.
For more on this dynamic, see: Center for Disease Control (CDC) Website; ‘‘Fact
Sheet: Helicobacter pylori and Peptic Ulcer Disease.’’ http:==www.cdc.gov=ulcer=
David Brown, ‘‘Medical Care Often Not Optimal, Study Finds,’’ The Washington
Post, 26 June 2003, p. A02.
For more on intelligence epistemology, see: Mark M. Lowenthal, ‘‘Intelligence
Epistemology: Dealing with the Unbelievable,’’ International Journal of
Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Vol. 6, No. 3, Fall 1993, pp. 319–325.
John Lewis Gaddis, The Landscape of History: How Historians Map the Past
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 57.
Ibid., p. 60.
An exception might be models developed internal to the intelligence community
that enable them to assess events of interest such as political stability. For
more, see: Stanley A. Feder, ‘‘FACTIONS and Policon: New Ways to Analyze
Politics,’’ in Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s
Internal Journal, 1955–1992, H. Bradford Westerfield, ed. (New Haven: Yale
University Press, 1995), pp. 274–292. Also see: Stanley A. Feder, ‘‘Forecasting
for Policy Making in the Post Cold-War Period,’’ Annual Review of Political
Science, Vol. 5, June 2002, pp. 111–125.
Walter Laqueur, ‘‘The Question of Judgment,’’ p. 533.
Ramzi S. Cotran, Vinay Kumar, Stanley L. Robbins, Robbins Pathologic Basis of
Disease, 4th ed. (Philadelphia: W.B. Saunders Company, 1989).
728 STEPHEN MARRIN AND JONATHAN D. CLEMENTE
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENCE